Three Months Out: Where Do We Stand?

Three months out from the mid-term elections, the “metrics,” as they say in the military, are mixed three months out. On the positive side, Obama continues his slide, down to 44% in the latest Gallup, and 45% in the latest Rasmussen (with the “strongly disapproves” as high). Opposition to the “health-non-care” bill remains at astronomical levels. Support for Arizona’s immigration bill is in the high 60s. And the “generic ballot?” Don’t be fooled by the latest “Dems ahead.” It’s a statistical trick. All previous generic ballots have been based on registered voters, but suddenly the pollster shifted to adults. That’s a very big change, and it accounts for a difference of 13% in the Dems’ favor. They don’t believe it, and you shouldn’t either.

Virtually everything Obama touches turns toxic, whether the Gulf Oil leak or relations with our former friends to the economy. It’s clear to almost everyone that he has no plan—or worse, that his plan (as I suggested last year) was to destroy the country so as to need more government. I’m with Rush Limbaugh on that one: I don’t think that any of this is incompetence or an accident. It’s by design, and it’s not over.

And that’s the bad news. The Dems are utterly impervious to public opinion—even when it’s overwhelmingly and obviously against them—and are expecting a serious defeat in the Fall. That’s why they are pushing stuff through so rapidly. I fully expect, as I predicted months ago, a major effort on cap-and-tax and on amnesty before the end of the year, regardless of election results. The old maxim that it’s easier to beg forgiveness than to ask permission is doubly true in politics, where it’s twice as hard to repeal something as to pass it.

And, I’m afraid, there’s worse news. While I expect as of this moment the GOP to win 25 to possibly even 45 seats in the House, and perhaps have a net gain of 3-4 in the Senate; and while I think SOME of those will be radical improvements (Pat Toomey, for example, over Arlen Sphincter); others are fading. Charlie Two-faced Crist in FL is torpedoing the candidacy of conservative Marco Rubio, who hurt himself with comments on the oil leak. Sharron Angle is losing ground slowly against Harry Reid, but those in the know seem to think she’ll still win.

There are three possible scenarios—and I know this isn’t telling you much: 1) the GOP comes up just short of re-taking the House. This is probably the worst of all, though not without a silver lining, which is that once again, the Dems cannot blame Republicans for anything (even though they keep trying with the slavish help of the drive-by media); 2) the GOP wins the House by a good 10 votes, gets close in the Senate and as a result can at least stop funding a lot of Obama’s destruction. The difficulty with this one is that the Republicans absolutely WILL get blamed for everything and it will be terrifically difficult for them to hold together and block further Obama mischief. If you thought holding them together to oppose health care was a miracle, you ain’t seen nuthin’ yet. For the GOP to stay solid for two years of unrelenting media hostility in a presidential election term? Well, if they pull that off, they deserve more credit than anyone has given them.

The third—and in ways both best and worst—alternative is that the Republicans lose the House and Senate, but Obama/Pelosi/Reid, tone-deaf and tyrannical, continue their fascist march for two more years. Obviously, those two years will be disastrous beyond belief. But it may be necessary to destroy the last vestige of support for socialism, radical Progressivism, and “moderates” in America. One could envision a reverse “New Deal” or a combination of a Reagan/1994 all rolled into one.

Which of these do I predict? Like Yoda, I say “always in motion is the future.” I do know that any notion of a 100-seat GOP victory and Senate takeover are extremely remote, but in three months of politics, anything can happen. As of July, I’m expecting scenario #1. This will be better for the nation, but will be hell on Republicans for two years. It will be a Moscow of ’41. If the GOP holds firm, Poland of ’44 can follow in two years.