Three months out from the mid-term elections, the “metrics,” as they say in the military, are mixed three months out. On the positive side, Obama continues his slide, down to 44% in the latest Gallup, and 45% in the latest Rasmussen (with the “strongly disapproves” as high). Opposition to the “health-non-care” bill remains at astronomical levels. Support for Arizona’s immigration bill is in the high 60s. And the “generic ballot?” Don’t be fooled by the latest “Dems ahead.” It’s a statistical trick. All previous generic ballots have been based on registered voters, but suddenly the pollster shifted to adults. That’s a very big change, and it accounts for a difference of 13% in the Dems’ favor. They don’t believe it, and you shouldn’t either.
Virtually everything Obama touches turns toxic, whether the Gulf Oil leak or relations with our former friends to the economy. It’s clear to almost everyone that he has no plan—or worse, that his plan (as I suggested last year) was to destroy the country so as to need more government. I’m with Rush Limbaugh on that one: I don’t think that any of this is incompetence or an accident. It’s by design, and it’s not over.
And that’s the bad news. The Dems are utterly impervious to public opinion—even when it’s overwhelmingly and obviously against them—and are expecting a serious defeat in the Fall. That’s why they are pushing stuff through so rapidly. I fully expect, as I predicted months ago, a major effort on cap-and-tax and on amnesty before the end of the year, regardless of election results. The old maxim that it’s easier to beg forgiveness than to ask permission is doubly true in politics, where it’s twice as hard to repeal something as to pass it.
And, I’m afraid, there’s worse news. While I expect as of this moment the GOP to win 25 to possibly even 45 seats in the House, and perhaps have a net gain of 3-4 in the Senate; and while I think SOME of those will be radical improvements (Pat Toomey, for example, over Arlen Sphincter); others are fading. Charlie Two-faced Crist in FL is torpedoing the candidacy of conservative Marco Rubio, who hurt himself with comments on the oil leak. Sharron Angle is losing ground slowly against Harry Reid, but those in the know seem to think she’ll still win.
There are three possible scenarios—and I know this isn’t telling you much: 1) the GOP comes up just short of re-taking the House. This is probably the worst of all, though not without a silver lining, which is that once again, the Dems cannot blame Republicans for anything (even though they keep trying with the slavish help of the drive-by media); 2) the GOP wins the House by a good 10 votes, gets close in the Senate and as a result can at least stop funding a lot of Obama’s destruction. The difficulty with this one is that the Republicans absolutely WILL get blamed for everything and it will be terrifically difficult for them to hold together and block further Obama mischief. If you thought holding them together to oppose health care was a miracle, you ain’t seen nuthin’ yet. For the GOP to stay solid for two years of unrelenting media hostility in a presidential election term? Well, if they pull that off, they deserve more credit than anyone has given them.
The third—and in ways both best and worst—alternative is that the Republicans lose the House and Senate, but Obama/Pelosi/Reid, tone-deaf and tyrannical, continue their fascist march for two more years. Obviously, those two years will be disastrous beyond belief. But it may be necessary to destroy the last vestige of support for socialism, radical Progressivism, and “moderates” in America. One could envision a reverse “New Deal” or a combination of a Reagan/1994 all rolled into one.
Which of these do I predict? Like Yoda, I say “always in motion is the future.” I do know that any notion of a 100-seat GOP victory and Senate takeover are extremely remote, but in three months of politics, anything can happen. As of July, I’m expecting scenario #1. This will be better for the nation, but will be hell on Republicans for two years. It will be a Moscow of ‘41. If the GOP holds firm, Poland of ‘44 can follow in two years.
Thomas Hagedorn says:
My thoughts are less preoccupied with the outcome of the upcoming elections than with the commitment of Republican candidates to conservative, or shall I say, “Tea Party Principles.” If elected, are Kasich, Portman, et al, willing to “go to the wall” for those ideals or are they going to morph into a new generation of Voinovich’s, Taft’s, and Dewine’s? (Wait a minute, Dewine is running, isn’t he?) We’ll see. Then again, maybe we won’t see, at least in Ohio. The Republican “brand” has been damaged very badly here. I know many Tea Party people who are not excited about ANY of the statewide Republican candidates. Part of that has been because of actions by the state party and its leader, Kevin “I’m only a distant cousin of Mike’s” Dewine. They spent a lot of party money to fight Tea Party endorsed candidates during the primary. Not a good move. Unless you are Kevin Dewine and are afraid of losing your job.
Neal says:
Tell me more about the “generic ballot”? Are you saying the pollsters have changed their sample group to make dems look better in the polls?
Trish McCoy says:
I agree that Obama’s plan is to push our country over the edge in order to force bigger and bigger government on us. Most people I hear are opposed to that, but what scares me is the number of people who think it is a great idea. Many have said things about it being our government’s responsibility to “take care of us” and how “comforting” it is going to be have the healthcare safety net. Any idea how many of these lemmings are out there? And how to educate them? I’m usually too stunned to present a good argument.
Austin says:
Prof. Schweikart great analysis. Lame duck session might bring a nightmare, but as you say, the more Obama try’s to reform, the more his constituents are disenchanted with his meaning of ‘hope and change.’
Dan Hyland says:
I for one am just about ready to disappear to the secret city in the mountains powered by John Galt’s magical power generator. Every time I turn around I hear about doctors closing their practices, is that where they’re going?!?!?!
schweikart@erinet.com says:
Yes. In the previous Gallup “generic,” they used registered VOTERS but in the one that has Obama up, they use “adults.” It’s a really big difference. “Adults” are people who don’t vote at higher rates than “voters.” “Likely voters” is the very best, but few use them because it’s time consuming to figure out who is “likely.”
Honest Conservative says:
I agree that none of what Obama does is incompetence. I’ve known this from the beginning. To say it is the result of incompetence is to deny him responsibility. Judge a man by his deads and not by his words and you’ve got the only metric that matters.
Sometimes I wonder if he is surprised that he won the election and had expected that he could expand his professional victim status. We can suspect that this might be why he continues to “campaign”. He is in denial. For the first time in his life he is ultimately responsible. Ain’t it fun, Mr. President?
How many people does the average american know first hand who count all their friends as communists? Yet, Mr. Obama does not seem to know any other type of philosophy.
It was a pleasure speaking with you last Sunday, Dr. S.
James D. Best says:
Good analysis. I think this is much more realistic than the rosy scenario painted by some. George Washington said, “The people may not be ready to retract from error. Evil must be sorely felt before it can be removed.”
I’m not sure that enough people see that we are on a calamitous track.I suspect that Democrats will lose seats in the House and Senate, but retain enough control to push their agenda further down the road. My fear is that 2012 will be too late
schweikart@erinet.com says:
Jim, unfortunately, we’re on the same page. My concern is that if the GOP does NOT get the House, the Dems will advance everything. But even with the House, there are enough cowards/RINOs who will back a Dem policy.
schweikart@erinet.com says:
I do think the election was unexpected. That’s why his appointees are so pathetic. They had to scramble—not that it matters to Zero, who loves destroying the U.S. so as to “bring it into line” with the rest of the world.
JP says:
“I for one am just about ready to disappear to the secret city in the mountains powered by John Galt’s magical power generator.”
Give me the address and I’ll join you!
If there was an “America like it used to be” out in the middle of the Pacific somewhere, I’d emigrate there in a heartbeat.
Obama is not incompetent. He is a Communist. The professional Left will keep insisting “mistakes were made with the best of intentions” in order to deceive the electorate until the economy goes down the drain — but this was the plan all along.